The Steve Rubel Stream

Insights on emerging technologies and trends.
Steve Rubel
Steve Rubel (bio) is SVP, Director of Insights for Edelman Digital, a division of Edelman - the world's largest independent PR firm.

He is charged with helping clients identify emerging technologies and trends that can be applied in marketing communications programs. Rubel also explores these topics on his site, a monthly Forbes.com column and in a bi-weekly AdAge column. He can be found on Twitter and Facebook as well.

Steve can be reached via email at steverubel@gmail.com.

Note: Everything posted on this site is Steve's personal opinion. It does not represent the views of Edelman or its clients.

               

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AP is Visionary: They See a "Siteless Web"

TechCrunch reports that the Associated Press is using their Twitter account to push their followers to their Facebook page. On that hub they syndicate many stories blog posts and dispatches as full text. Unlike Danny Sullivan (here and here), I think this is a downright brilliant and visionary move. What's more it's a natural for a wire service like AP. Here's why.

AP sees that the future of media is headless, which I wrote about here six months ago. Paul Gillin echos my thoughts and calls this the siteless web.

Wire services like AP and Reuters have in one sense flourished since the dawn of the consumer Internet. You can't visit a news site without running into one of their stories. Often, some of the featured and more popular stories on Yahoo News (an underrated news giant) are from wire services. However, there's an inherent problem today with that model and this approach tries to solve it.

As wires like AP and Reuters syndicate their content everywhere, they have struggled to build any kind of meaningful relationship with readers. In some ways they've become so ubiquitous they're commodity. Others, like the New York Times, have done a much better job by offering benefits to registered members - but also with a lot more investment and infrastructure. 

The AP is now changing the game for news by not only going where attention spirals are taking us but by also using their content to curate a conversation on Facebook and - above all - build relationships.

As of this writing, the AP page on Facebook has 9,400 fans. I bet this will grow over time as people spend more time on Facebook and slowly become more accustomed to getting their news there, in addition to friend updates, games,etc. Swap out the word fans and replace it with subscribers and suddenly you can see where I am going and why this is a smart idea. It's CRM for news!

Over the weekend Robert French from Auburn and I have been debating on Google Buzz the value of Facebook as a news source. It does have a ways to go but it's coming. Six years ago, as an experiment, I lived off blogs as my sole news source. I might try that again with Facebook. I continue to be impressed with how media companies are starting to experiment and the utter richness of the conversation that occurs in a very navigable, digestible format.

LATER:: In response to this post, Viki asks on Buzz if I see a similar future for Google Buzz. In a word, yes. With content infinite and attention finite, the media will go where people are. This includes Twitter, Buzz and YouTube. The media is already all over Buzz - case in point, the Huffington Post. However Facebook is the 800 pound gorilla - for now.
Filed under  CRM   Facebook   journalism   media   social networking   Twitter  
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Posted 29 days ago

Facebook Now Drives More Traffic to Key Sites Than Google

UPDATE: A couple of notes to clarify this post. First, the chart above, which I pulled from compete.com, shows the top sites that Facebook drives traffic to. Also the headline has been updated to reflect that Facebook is driving more traffic to portals than Google. The San Francisco Chronicle story, linked below, notes that Facebook is only starting to encroach on Google for other sites. The trend, however, still holds.

We're at the beginning of a major shift in how we find, consume and interact with information. If the 2000s was the Google decade, then the 2010s will be the Facebook decade. Already, you can see the writing on the wall - pun intended. Case in point: a search for "google decade danny sullivan" pulls up his Facebook note higher than a blog post (an item I wanted to include here for context). But that's nothing. Look at the data.

According to new stats from compete.com Facebook is becoming the web's top source of traffic (link via Jeremiah Owyang on where else, Facebook). The image above is a snapshot I pulled from compete.com. It shows where Facebook is sending traffic...

"According to Web measurement firm Compete Inc., Facebook has passed search-engine giant Google to become the top source for traffic to major portals like Yahoo and MSN, and is among the leaders for other types of sites.

This trend is shifting the way Web site operators approach online marketing, even as Google takes steps to move into the social-media world.

Some experts say social media could become the Internet's next search engine."

That last line is key. I see Facebook starting to look more like Google while Google tries and stumbles at becoming more social. Bing will start to play a central supporting role here. I see Facebook and Bing becoming an "Axis of FTW" that will disrupt Google on every front. (Microsoft is an Edelman client.)

You can already see it coming...
  • Titan/Facebook Chat will challenge Gmail in communications
  • Facebook pages will disrupt Google - especially if they were to integrate Bing Maps and location technology a la Foursquare. This can quickly position Facebook as the Web's Yellow Pages, an area that Google and Yelp currently dominate
  • Facebook will make search more social, allowing it to become annotated and curated. This up-ends Google's core business. It also makes the Facebook self-serve advertising model smarter and more effective as it collects more data about where it sends traffic. This threatens Adwords
Social networking is here to stay. It's where attention spirals are flowing and no one looms larger than Facebook. (Link sharing on Facebook rose 500% in six months.) And while Facebook has plenty of critics and they run into the occasional privacy concerns, I believe that they will dominate the landscape the next few years. In fact, I see them becoming the number one web site in the world in under three years. It could eat the web.

Now a lot could go wrong. It is possible that Facebook will become AOL the sequel. But I don't see it. There's no alternative and the more we put into Facebook the more value we gain from it. This is a different era where vertical integration (e.g. owning and controlling the whole experience) is a major plus, especially if it's elegant and simple. There's too much information and things vying for our attention today. This turns vertical integration and simplicity into a competitive advantage.

So what does this mean? I believe business web sites will become less important over time. They will be primarily transactional and/or for utility. Brands will shift more of their dollars and resources to creating robust presence where people already are and figure out how to activate employees en masse in a way that builds relationships and drives traffic back to their sites to complete transactions. Media companies will do the same - they will be "headless."

Google and search will remain important for years to come. However, what we're seeing is the beginning of big changes where social networking and Facebook will further disrupt advertising, media, one-to-one and one-to-many communications, not to mention search.
Filed under  attention   Facebook   Google   media   social networking   stats   traffic  
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Posted 1 month ago

Facebook Could Eat the Web

Like almost everyone else on the planet, it seems, I am spending more time on Facebook than any other site. The lone exception is Google. The reason I know this is that Safari, my browser, lists Facebook as my most visited site when I access its top sites feature.
In addition to using Facebook to check in on what my family, friends and colleagues are up to, I have been using it as a newsreader for months. The screenshot below is my reader. This is something that the company suggested everyone do here. Although I suspect that most users haven't taken the steps top create a dedicated news list as Facebook suggests, there's not doubt that the social network is becoming a critical source of information. Yesterday, Hitwise published a fascinating report that illustrates just how large Facebook looms as a source for news.
But something bigger is going on here...Facebook is eating the web.
Yes, Facebook is becoming the web for millions and millions of people. As I have written before, there's already a wealth of amazing things you can do within the site without ever leaving. What's more, as I also speculated, the site giving rise to headless media companies like Zynga that don't need a web site to succeed.
In short, I believe Facebook is unstoppable. They aren't just the next Google. They're the next web.
Here's where I see things shaping up from here.
First, Facebook will move from being a solely place where people connect to each other to a site where people connect with businesses and, more importantly, the people who work for them, as I wrote yesterday. This, as my friend Robert Scoble, points out is an area where others dominate. But I expect Facebook will catch up fast. They will buy Yelp and/or Foursquare - or just implement similar technology - and become the yellow pages of the web.
Facebook may not even need to buy Yelp to make it happen. They are already slowly becoming the yellow pages. Everywhere I go I see signs like the one above telling us where we can find a local business on Facebook. In addition, last night during a fascinating session on the future of journalism (archived here), Sree Sreenivasan from Columbia Journalism School noted that movie posters don't have URLs anymore. They just tell us to go find them on Facebook. That's significant.
Second, Facebook will start to give web developers more tools to build entire rich micro-sites that exist solely inside the social network. Check out what 1800Flowers is already doing. Such a move will encourage more companies to focus 100% of their web marketing efforts on maximizing their Facebook presence. And why not? The site has 350+ million users, half of whom log in at least once a month. It's much easier to go where people are than to get them to come to you.
Third, Facebook will get serious about search. It's an untapped monetization pipeline that can bring in billions - especially when they couple social algorithms with crawlers. Phones too.
So what could derail Facebook? A lot. People could tire of it. But I don't see that happening. In fact, I see us putting more of our content inside Facebook and I see them making it all easily searchable and accessible from any device and leveraging connections to make it all even more powerful.
Now history says I will be wrong. AOL tried this and lost. But AOL did not have the algorithms and social connections that Facebook has in place, so I think we're in a different era. Facebook could eat the web or, perhaps more likely, become a parallel universe web. But, the question is this - will the web allow itself to be eaten or will two webs emerge? Time will tell.
Filed under  Facebook   marketing   media   Social Networking   social news   trends  
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Posted 1 month ago

The Age of Media Agnosticism

According to Nielsen, the average American visited 87 domains and 2,600 Web pages in September. Outside the U.S., those numbers tend to be smaller, and fresh data indicates that just a few sites dominate the mix. Many rely on the news to find them rather than seeking it out - and those who do hunt for news are likely to do so via a single outlet of their choosing and/or via a search engine or even YouTube. It seems that, curiously, the diversity of the sites Americans frequent remains small even though their choices have grown infinitely. 

In this essay I touch on why - faced with infinite choices, powerful search tools and equally helpful friends - Americans are adapting their habits and becoming less loyal to general sources than ever before, and why engaged companies can still find relevance in social spaces and influence their stakeholders in this Age of Media Agnosticism.

You can find the full article here (PDF) or below. For more visit, our insights web site.


(download)

Filed under  essays   ideas   media  
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Posted 2 months ago

How Twitter is Rewiring My Brain - and Maybe Yours

These days - perhaps a function of my lifestyle - the mobile device is becoming my primary content reading and browsing tool. This is slowly changing my habits and I wonder if this is part of a larger trend.

With the advent of Twitter lists, I find myself dipping in and out of the stream to catch up not only on news but blog posts from friends and companies whose products and services I use or have more than a passing interest. However the changes in how I interact with media go deeper than news.

I am an avid reader. Each year I read several dozen books - exclusively nonfiction (call me boring, it's ok).

Where I used to finish one book before picking up the next, nowadays, I keep a virtual shelf of books on my iPhone and dip in and out in Twitter-like bursts of time. This could never work for fiction but it suits me fine.

So Twitter is definitely reconditioning this 40-year-old toward a new way of living. How about you?

Filed under  ebooks   media   mobile   trends   Twitter  
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Posted 3 months ago

When Magazines Lose Their Research Departments, Google Wins

Steve Baker on Bloomberg's takeover of BusinessWeek and what it means for both the blogs and their research departments.

Filed under  google   journalism   media   media reforestation  
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Posted 3 months ago

Ten Common Phrases That Could Soon Be History

Earlier this week Oxford University Press declared "unfriend" its word of the year. This got me thinking... now that we are entering an era of media reforestation what common phrases could soon be history? Here's 10 that I came up with. You may disagree but I believe all of these have faded or will be gone soon. (All images are from Flickr via Creative Commons and are credited.)

Filed under  culture   media   media reforestation   trends   writing  
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Posted 4 months ago

Defining Media, Cross-Mating Elephants and Zebras

Five years ago there was media and social media and the two were distinct. You know what was what. It was like there elephants and zebras. You knew the difference. 

Today all media is social, all social is media. It's impossible to separate the two. 

The media all actively use social technologies to innovate, converse and collaborate with their audiences. Meanwhile, social content from friends - be it tweets or status updates or videos - all should be considered media. Yes, the elephants and the zebras have cross-mated.

My colleague overheard me say this and he drew this little doodle for me a few months ago. I keep it handy and refer to it often when thinking about big topics, like this one: just what is media? I don't have an answer any more. But it's important we have one. Google has a bunch of definitions here, but none of them seem to apply any more.

The reason we need a new definition for media (as opposed to a definition for new media - a topic for another day) is because entire industries depend on it. People say "I work in the media business." There are "media buying" agencies. And so on.

So in asking this question, I turn to you. How would you define media today? Maybe we can begin to crowdsource a definition.
Filed under  insights   media   social media  
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Posted 4 months ago

Chart: Newspaper Circulation - the Last Two Decades

via theawl.com

Fascinating look at newspaper circulation over the last 20 years. Handy for PowerPoints should you need it.

Filed under  media   newspapers   stats  
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Posted 4 months ago

The Next Great Media Company Won't Have a Web Site

Lately I have noticed that many of the people, blogs, news services and more that I want to track are right inside Facebook. I have even filed them under a list called "feeds."

This is very convient since their updates are integrated right into my stream right beside the people that I follow - friends, family, coworkers, etc.

This has tremendous potential. Conceivably the next great media company will be all spokes and no hub. It will exist as a constellation of connected apps and widgets that live inside other sites and offer a full experience plus access to your social graph and robust community features. Each of these may interconnect too so that a media company's community on Facebook can talk to the same on Twitter.

Facebook might be the first venue where this starts. It could become a mini news reader for millions who don't care about RSS or Twitter. Over time this may obviate the need to create large news sites. It's easier to create a rich interactive experience there than start a new news site and hope that people come to you. They won't have time to find or visit.

In some ways this is a return to the old days of AOL where media companies rushed to develop a presence. Ultimately the web won out. But I wonder if we might see a return here to the days of old now that eyeballs are aggregating on socal networks and the connective tissue exists for them to talk to each other.

I do believe it's possible to be successful here. Witness for example the New England Patriots. That said it will be very difficult for existing media companies to make such a move. What's your view?

Filed under  decentralization   Facebook   media   social networking  
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Posted 5 months ago
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