14 Apr 2010

Three Trends Slates Will Accelerate

A little over a week ago I moved my MacBook Air off my desk at home and jumped in using a slate to cover 90% of my work/personal needs (basically I just use my laptop to manage the slate). In the office, I only used my HP desktop for complex tasks that required it - like PowerPoint.

My verdict: if you are a knowledge worker and your computing needs center mostly around the web and text, as mine do, slates are ready for prime time. I am going to continue using my iPad as my primary device. And I hope to try HP's slate when it comes out (HP is an Edelman client).

I believe the slate format is the future - perhaps not mainstream today, but they will be soon. However, as the slates take off they're going to have an impact on marketing and media as well. Here are the three trends that I believe the format will accelerate...

1) Media Reforestation

Media is in a rapid state of evolution as consumption moves from atoms (e.g. print) to bits. I believe all tangible forms of media - everything you can see, touch, taste and smell - will be in sharp decline or extinct by 2012 in the US, and eventually globally.

Mobile devices, especially slates, are going to accelerate this trend. The experience of reading the Wall Street Journal on the iPad is better than the web site or the print edition. If News Corp. prices it reasonably, I will subscribe. I believe many millions will too.

Everyday a newsprint reader dies and is not replaced. However, newspaper readers will be around forever and slates give the medium a real shot in the arm. However, that's not to say there won't be pain - the economics are different.

2) The Attention Crash

On my iPad right now I have four feature-length movies, 2500 songs, two email accounts, Facebook, Twitter, six ebooks, dozens of articles I want to read (thank you Instapaper!), many news apps, games and more.

Now I am an extreme information junkie. Not everyone is. But these devices put infinite choices at our disposal. Yet the fact remains, we only have one brain.

We're deep into a crisis of attention. Slates will accelerate attention apnea. We will start and stop tasks, jumping from one to the other. The end result, more media snacking, fewer meals, And when we do consume meals, it maybe quality content like movies, news apps and TV shows that reign. Time will tell.

3) Work-Life Blending

The great thing about slates is the value they offer for the cost - $500 - as well as in their portability. This week I attended several meetings inside and outside the firm and I spotted iPads at every single one. Yesterday I attended a brainstorm at a major NGO that included people from around the globe. At one table of six there I saw four iPads. Most of these devices I suspect were purchased by individuals not their employers.

Slates, like instant messaging, Twitter, Facebook and the like, are going to sneak into corporations via the back door, though I suspect some employers will buy them for knowledge workers.

The trend here to note is that these devices blend our work/personal lives. Slates didn't cause blending but as more of us bring them to work, it accelerates. IT managers will need to provide sound guidance to ensure these devices and smart phones protect corporate information, while not stifling productivity. A byproduct: this is will likely encourage companies to become more social since slates and smart phones bring social networking deep inside the firewall.

That's what I see in my crystal ball. Slates largely accelerate trends that smart phones started. Now I may be wrong of course. Time will tell. But I see a lot of promise for these devices and potentially many winners, not just Apple.

13 Apr 2010

The Swiss Cheese Web Ain’t The Web

The following essay is also cross-posted on the Edelman Digital blog.

Edelman Digital Homepage

Seemingly overnight the Information Superhighway (does anyone call it that anymore?) became littered with potholes. In the last week Apple sold nearly 500,000 iPads, none of which support key technologies that we have come to rely on, including Adobe Flash, Windows Media and others. (Adobe and Microsoft are Edelman clients.)

For the last week I have been using my iPad as my primary device. I enjoy the slate format and think it’s the next big thing for computing – one that will see lots of winners. Unfortunately, this comes at a cost. I don’t get to experience the web like I used to, but a version of it that only Apple approves of – one that’s peppered with potholes that turns it into the swiss cheese web. The above image is what our own web site looks like on the iPad, which proudly uses Flash for certain features.

This poses a challenge for Web developers – one that Josh Bernoff so eloquently details on his post on the “Splinternet.” Should one develop the most robust experience using the best technologies on the market or should they kowtow to Apple’s vision for the Internet? Tough call.

In the end we believe that marketers should develop for the masses – the common denominator that unites the broadest universe of consumers. Right now, that’s desktop browsers with plug-ins. However, if developers need to start coding different versions of their site for different platforms, then we have trouble ahead. Standards are what made the web become a mass consumer medium.

Edelman Digital calls on Apple and all companies to support consumer choice – to allow consumers to have the same experience they are accustomed to on the desktop. Where once mobile devices were not powerful enough to run rich media technologies, that’s no longer the case. Why ban Flash and WMVs yet support Quicktime and PDF – two other standards. It makes no sense.

The Swiss Cheese Web ain’t the real web. At minimum Apple and others need to convey this up front (a disclaimer in their ads would be a nice start). However, it is our hope that they will open more and embrace the same standards that have allowed online innovation to blossom.

9 Apr 2010

The Tablet-only Challenge - a Friday Update

Photo: The "front 24" - my most essential apps.

Friday is here and I am five days into my week-long experiment of using my iPad as my primary computer both at home and in the office. To recap: I am continuing to use my phone (mostly when I am away from my desk) and I am only using my home/office computers for basic file management and more complex tasks that require it, like editing PowerPoint decks. All email, writing, note taking, Tweeting and web work takes place on the slate.

In short, it's going really really well. I believe that when this experiment ends I will continue to use the iPad as my primary computer, though I may use my PC more than I do now, especially when I am in the office. I am also looking forward to trying out other slates, like HP's (an Edelman client.)

Some general observations...

First, you would be surprised what a joy it is to have a device that: turns on instantly, requires no saving (!), is completely silent and has incredible battery life. This should be the default for every system. I can't stand noisy computers and my MacBook Air is by far the nosiest I have ever used. It also has terrible battery life. With the iPad, I can go almost 12 hrs with wifi and Bluetooth on.

Second, there's no doubt in my mind that the iPad marks a pivotal moment in the history of computing. People want computing to be simpler. And there will be lots of winners and competitors to deliver on this promise. And while multitasking is now coming to the iPad in the fall with version 4.0, I am not particularly keen on it. I like that I can only do one thing at a time. It makes it easier to focus on the task at hand.

Finally, I notice that now when I use my phone it feels, well, tiny! I am using my smart phones less and using the iPad more. However, I am sure that it will balance out over time. So net net, for most I don't see the iPad replacing a PC but complementing it (as is Apple's intent). However, as more apps that take advantage of the full canvas are developed, that could change.

Some thoughts on productivity and creativity...

First, slates are perfect go-everywhere writing machines, despite what some say about their potential for creating. Pages is easy to use and it makes it a snap to get Word documents in and out. Also, I am using the iPad extensively for note-taking. It comes with me to every meeting and I find myself taking better notes as I listen more intently to capture what's being said. Also, I am starting to see iPads pop up in meetings. So maybe others are doing the same. Evernote on the iPad is particularly impressive but I am unsure how to enable it to geotag my notes.

The ergonomics and typing on glass takes time to get used to. At times I feel like I am typing on a digital picture frame. However, I find that when I type in horizontal mode I am getting pretty fast. At home and work I use an external keyboard. I am getting used to looking down at the screen too - it reminds me of ye olde typewriter days.

Where the iPad falls down is PowerPoint. If your decks are done on a PC and you bring them into Keynote or Photos apps, you're ready to present. This should cover my needs outside the office. However, Keynote for the iPad doesn't import PowerPoint files too well and it doesn't export to them at all, unless you are using the Mac desktop version too - which I am not in the office. So it's not ideal for editing and therefore true mobile productivity just yet. Hopefully, QuickOffice and Documents to Go will remedy this fast.

I also believe that slates are going to unlock a new era of creativity. I find myself using mind mapping more to problem solve and think up new ideas. My favorite mind mapping app, Mindnode, is tablet ready. Also I have downloaded Omnigraffle, Photogene and Layers and plan to integrate them into my workflow, particularly for enhancing my presentations. I know that other members of the broader Edelman team are already tinkering with these devices and thinking about ho they can be used in our work. I suspect the same is true at thousands of companies around the world.

Finally, it took awhile, but I finally found a Twitter client that takes advantage of the full screen and has all the features I need - notifications, the old re-tweet style, Instapaper support and more. It's called Tweetings It's a good stop-gap until a fully optimized version of Tweetie is released.

More to come as I wrap up the week. Next up, some thoughts on the iPad/slate's broader implications for marketers and PR professionals. As always, if you have questions, I am all ears.

5 Apr 2010

The Tablet-Only Challenge - Day One

Today I began a week-long challenge to use a tablet computer, in this case the iPad, as my primary content creation and consumption device. Here are my observations from day one.

When I arrived in the office this morning, everyone of course wanted to see the iPad and what it could do. We had some challenges to get it connected to the wireless access point on our floor (it worked fine elsewhere), but this was fine since it gave me time to do more complex editing of a PowerPoint deck on my PC - something Keynote doesn't quite handle as well.

With connectivity restored, I was off to the races, and just in time too as the rest of my day - like most - was consumed with meetings and calls. This is where the iPad shined.

In some corporate cultures, it's more than OK to bring a laptop to a meeting for note taking. However, I often find that it puts a barrier between you and others. If you're taking notes on a smart phone, people just think you're checking your email. A tablet computer changes the dynamic because everyone can tell you are taking notes. I used the iPad to take notes throughout the day, which was terrific since I have terrible handwriting.

However, it also unleashed more collaboration as well. During a meeting when I was trying to explain a concept, I opened up the free brand new Adobe Ideas app (Adobe is a client) and sketched out a schematic that illustrated my thinking. This was terrific since I could plop it on the table and we could sketch together. Even better, I was able to attach the doodle and send it with my notes to attendees.

As a next step I am going to download Omnigraffle, so that when we collaborate we can create more structured diagrams. I suspect many of these apps won't port video out - but that's something Apple can perhaps one day remedy with APIs. Still, it's easy to take a screen shot to get something into the Photos app, which does support video out, so that we can put it on a big screen.

During the rest of the day I checked emails and took notes as I participated on calls. One important observation is that the iPad's ergonomics really are not ideal. If you use it without an external keyboard you're basically looking straight down all the time. It reminds me of when I wrote papers in college on electronic typewriters. It's ok for shorter writings but not longer ones.

However, when you couple the iPad with the cool Apple case and a keyboard, as Brian Lam from Gizmodo does here (and pictured above), then it really sings. That's how I am writing this post at home. I have the iPad in its case propped on top of a book with my Apple wireless keyboard in front. Sweet.

More to come as I continue the week-long challenge. Leave a comment to ask a question.

 

4 Apr 2010

Going Tablet-Only for a Week

   
Click here to download:
Going_Tablet-Only_for_a_Week.zip (106 KB)

 

Some dates, we never forget - July 4, 1776, November 22, 1963 or September 11, 2001. Other dates, when we look back, we realize were significant, we just didn't see it at the time. One such date is August 9, 1995, Netscape's IPO, which Thomas Friedman notes was a watershed moment in the flattening of the Earth.

We may not realize today, but April 3, 2010 - the date the iPad debuted - is another date that falls into the latter camp. Like the Netscape IPO, we will look back on yesterday as the opening salvo in the next wave for computing. This is one that, by the way, Apple alone may not dominate. It's the date when tablets started to invade the collective consciousness of the everyman/woman.

I have been using computers since 1982 and have been online since 1988. You can read my odyssey here. I see the iPad as evolutionary. Now the iPad may not prove to be the ultimate winner. However, it will accelerate a broader trend that already is well underway - a "slimming down" of our tools, work streams and content systems. And like the desktop and mobile phone space, I expect there will be a number of winners, including HP - an Edelman client that has an awesome entry in this space coming.

But I as alluded, this isn't just about the iPad. It's about a bigger trend in how we're coping with what I call "The Attention Crash." With the glut of information now before us, tablets are going to help people simplify their flow. This is already happening. PCs will still be around for many years to come. But more of our work will be done on phones and tablets as the "atomic units" of content and computing slim down. Already...

* Stories and blog posts are giving way to Tweets and status updates
* Email is giving way to instant, text and direct messages * TV shows are giving way YouTube videos
* Applications are giving way to apps

I like to live a little bit in the future. Like the old Panasonic slogan, I want to be "just ahead" of my time. WIth this in mind, I am going to try an experiment this week. I am going to use my iPad as my primary work/personal content creation and consumption tool and take you along for the journey.

A lot of people are asking where tablets sit between a PC and a smart phone. To be honest, I don't know either. But maybe this week we'll find out together. This week is a good week to experiment because I will be in the office all week. I will use my desktop PC when I have to. For example, I am leading a webinar where I want to make sure all is working smoothly. And given that we are a PowerPoint-heavy organization, I will need my trusty HP desktop to edit some decks (the iPad doesn't support PowerPoint editing). However, for all else - email, writing, social networking, research, etc. - I will use the tablet and chronicle my results here and in my other streams.

I hope you'll come along to see the pros/cons of what the future might hold. I think we will see that we have a long way to go, but something big is starting and there will be lots of winners.

(This post was written on my iPad, paired with a Bluetooth keyboard - a must purchase, I can assure you.)

 

Steve Rubel's Posterous

Steve Rubel (bio) is SVP, Director of Insights for Edelman Digital, a division of Edelman - the world's largest independent PR firm.

He is charged with helping clients identify emerging technologies and trends that can be applied in marketing communications programs. Rubel also explores these topics on his site and in monthly columns for Forbes.com and Advertising Age. He can be found on Twitter and Facebook as well.

Steve can be reached via email at steverubel@gmail.com.

Note: Everything posted on this site is Steve's personal opinion. It does not represent the views of Edelman or its clients.