23 Jun 2010

Essay: The Apple Threat to Online Advertising

The following essay is also my column this month on Forbes.com.

Caption: Safari's new Reader view could rob publishers of page views especially if it finds its way into iOS devices

Watch Out: Apple May Aim To Reshape Online Advertising

Apple, without a doubt, is creating a massive sea change in how we interact with digital content. Note that I didn’t say “the Web.” This is because the millions of iPad and iPhone users spend more time within Apple’s walled garden of apps rather than in a browser. However, there’s a potential dark side to the millions of Apple devices being sold and it should give every marketer pause.

If you look just below the surface of all the hype around the iOS devices (the iPads, iPod Touches and iPhones), there’s a dirty little secret. Apple might be positioning the platform as a Trojan Horse that reshapes digital advertising as one man—Apple CEO Steve Jobs—thinks it should work. While this messianic zeal benefits users, it could conceivably create a competitive moat for Apple and its partners.

Jobs has more than a passing interest in online advertising. He co-authored a patent filing in 2008 called “Advertisements in Operating System.” Now Apple has put into place systems that handicap existing dominant formats like rich-media ads and interstitials.

Case in point: Safari. On June 7, the day Apple unveiled the new iPhone, it also shipped Safari 5. The browser, available for both PCs and Macs, has a feature called Reader that neutralizes multipage articles and interstitial ads by giving the user the option to read an article in a new clean view that strips away all but the text of the article.

A primary benefit of the new Reader view is that it allows a user to consume a multipage story without having to endure multiple clicks, interstitials and a new set of banner ads. This sounds great but it may rob publishers of ad impressions.

Now, granted, no one is saying that Safari is a powerhouse. It has a minuscule 10% share, according to Net Applications. However, keep in mind this feature is found only in the desktop version of Safari today. There’s no reason why Apple wouldn’t bring Reader to the growing armada of iOS devices—which commands an 60% share of all mobile browsing, according to Quantcast. The end result may be that more publishers will flock to the App Store and iAds.

Equally troubling is Apple’s posture toward rich-media ads. In the April open letter “Thoughts on Flash” Apple and Jobs clearly outlined why they are not allowing Adobe to push forward with its plans to bring the technology to the iOS ecosystem.

Most of Jobs’ arguments were primarily based on technology issues and user experience. Ads were only mentioned briefly. However, if you read between the lines, there may be another motive. Apple could be trying to pave the road for the success of iAds. (Disclosure: Edelman, my employer, is Adobe’s PR agency.)

The takeaway here is that as iOS devices grow in popularity, the platform encourages advertisers to increase their iAd budget and/or develop their own apps. This benefits developers and iAds advertisers. Now, I’m no lawyer, but it’s conceivable that if the iOS platform one day achieves any kind of dominant position the way Windows has, this may be viewed as an anti-competitive move.

No single company will ever control the Web. However, as Apple’s power grows and it begins to push into advertising with new formats, it must not put up roadblocks to other formats as it has done in the case of Flash or could do with its Reader view. Pressure from CMOs and others in the industry like the Association of National Advertisers and the IAB will ensure that even as Apple devices gain share advertisers will have the same freedom of choice in how they advertise in the post-PC age that they did in the previous era.

19 Apr 2010

The Apple 4G iPhone Prototype is Probably a Head Fake

Image above via Gizmodo

Right now the web is abuzz with commentary about a seemingly real next generation iPhone that was found in a bar. Gizmodo has the details. I don't doubt its authenticity or Gizmodo's reporting work here, but I believe the entire episode could be either a deliberate or somewhat hopeful plant by Apple designed to throw us off the trail of the real thing. I don't have evidence. I am just connecting some dots.

First, some background. Apple is the last company that I am aware of that thrives under command and control PR. Practically every other institution has been forced in this age to open up and become more transparent and collaborative (much to their benefit) - even entire governments. Apple meanwhile has thrived by maintaining precise control over the news flow and holding everything back for the "big reveal" when Steve controls the show. That's the Steve Jobs way - manage the entire "end to end" ecosystem, including the App Store and PR. And it's worked.

This was very easy before. Now, however, as Apple grows and there's more attention focused on the company, this is getting harder in an era where transparency and openness are the new defaults. So Apple needs to get creative.

It's been reported that Apple allegedly has teams in the company working on prototypes that will never see the light of day. It does so, it's been said, to maintain secrecy and to occasionally throw people off the trail. That's what I think is happening here.

If that's not enough, consider this - Apple appears to strive to maintain the news flow after a product is announced yet before it's available. After the iPad was revealed, it's been reported that Apple kept the few that were in the wild chained down to special tables. So this isn't a company that lets important unreleased devices anywhere near the wild... unless, that is, they want someone to find it.

So, to sum up, here's my analysis. I believe Apple made this device. It seems very authentic and Gizmodo has done a great reporting job. However, more importantly I believe this is probably a false prototype that someone from Apple either left in the bar intentionally or with an individual who they thought might do so for reasons only they know.

We'll find out for sure probably this summer, but that's my educated guess as a continuous student of PR.

LATER:: Gizmodo now has more on the person who lost the phone. However, I wonder if he had the real next-gen iPhone or just one that Apple was comoftable seeing leave its campus for a reason.

13 Apr 2010

The Swiss Cheese Web Ain’t The Web

The following essay is also cross-posted on the Edelman Digital blog.

Edelman Digital Homepage

Seemingly overnight the Information Superhighway (does anyone call it that anymore?) became littered with potholes. In the last week Apple sold nearly 500,000 iPads, none of which support key technologies that we have come to rely on, including Adobe Flash, Windows Media and others. (Adobe and Microsoft are Edelman clients.)

For the last week I have been using my iPad as my primary device. I enjoy the slate format and think it’s the next big thing for computing – one that will see lots of winners. Unfortunately, this comes at a cost. I don’t get to experience the web like I used to, but a version of it that only Apple approves of – one that’s peppered with potholes that turns it into the swiss cheese web. The above image is what our own web site looks like on the iPad, which proudly uses Flash for certain features.

This poses a challenge for Web developers – one that Josh Bernoff so eloquently details on his post on the “Splinternet.” Should one develop the most robust experience using the best technologies on the market or should they kowtow to Apple’s vision for the Internet? Tough call.

In the end we believe that marketers should develop for the masses – the common denominator that unites the broadest universe of consumers. Right now, that’s desktop browsers with plug-ins. However, if developers need to start coding different versions of their site for different platforms, then we have trouble ahead. Standards are what made the web become a mass consumer medium.

Edelman Digital calls on Apple and all companies to support consumer choice – to allow consumers to have the same experience they are accustomed to on the desktop. Where once mobile devices were not powerful enough to run rich media technologies, that’s no longer the case. Why ban Flash and WMVs yet support Quicktime and PDF – two other standards. It makes no sense.

The Swiss Cheese Web ain’t the real web. At minimum Apple and others need to convey this up front (a disclaimer in their ads would be a nice start). However, it is our hope that they will open more and embrace the same standards that have allowed online innovation to blossom.

2 Jan 2010

Holy Moses, We're Bored and Out of Shiny Objects

Image credit: Moses with the Tablets of Law by Wally G

For the last several months there's been a ton of interest in the mythical Apple tablet. Just how much? Since July Google searches for the words Apple and tablet are up 400% percent and news reference volume is up 150%. Apple has said nothing so that leaves a lot of room for armchair quarterbacking, the latest of which is a thoughtful and intelligent discourse between MG Siegler at TechCrunch and Joe Wilcox. But there's a bigger story here: we, the early adopters, are officially bored.


Twitter is out of beta and nothing arguably as innovative is seeming to replace it - although growth maybe peaking. Facebook and smartphones have become mainstream. Everything else - even some significant innovations in the mobile computing space that I am sure we will see at CES - is being (incorrectly) considered iterative. And so we're left to debate the merits and need for the Apple tablet, a fantastic imaginary device addressing arguably a need and market that does not exist currently, except perhaps in our imagination.

Mind you, I am not saying this is wrong. I am am just trying to scratch under the surface at the psychology of the meme. Perhaps part of the reason there has been so much debate is that the economy has slowed the pace of industry innovation and so what's in front of us can't meet the expectations of a select, yet influential few - the early adopters.

So, we keep talking about the tablet in full view. The press therefore rightly keeps writing – the conjecture is a story too. Plus the occasional new rumors and opinion keep the the cycle going.

All of this is a fascinating study in the psychology of our times and how conversation drives the news and the hype cycle, potentially setting up everyone to fail given the outlandish expectations.

Perhaps only divine intervention will give us what we want, even if we may not need it.
28 Jul 2009

Apple Docking Patent Portends Dual OS Tablet

Playing the Apple guessing game is fun. It's focused on rumors, more rumors, some facts and more rumors. The latest is that a "big" iPod Touch that runs the iPhone OS is imminent. However, I bet we'll see this docking station finally debut with it. (It was first patented back in 2008)

We need devices that have a desktop OS in one setting and a mobile UI/operating system in a mobile context. I bet that's what Apple will one day announce and - in the process - shake up the netbook space, as they promised to do.

Remember that you heard it here first!

Steve Rubel's Posterous

Steve Rubel (bio) is SVP, Director of Insights for Edelman Digital, a division of Edelman - the world's largest independent PR firm.

He is charged with helping clients identify emerging technologies and trends that can be applied in marketing communications programs. Rubel also explores these topics on his site and in monthly columns for Forbes.com and Advertising Age. He can be found on Twitter and Facebook as well.

Steve can be reached via email at steverubel@gmail.com.

Note: Everything posted on this site is Steve's personal opinion. It does not represent the views of Edelman or its clients.