Holy Moses, We're Bored and Out of Shiny Objects
Image credit: Moses with the Tablets of Law by Wally G
For the last several months there's been a ton of interest in the mythical Apple tablet. Just how much? Since July Google searches for the words Apple and tablet are up 400% percent and news reference volume is up 150%. Apple has said nothing so that leaves a lot of room for armchair quarterbacking, the latest of which is a thoughtful and intelligent discourse between MG Siegler at TechCrunch and Joe Wilcox. But there's a bigger story here: we, the early adopters, are officially bored.
Twitter is out of beta and nothing arguably as innovative is seeming to replace it - although growth maybe peaking. Facebook and smartphones have become mainstream. Everything else - even some significant innovations in the mobile computing space that I am sure we will see at CES - is being (incorrectly) considered iterative. And so we're left to debate the merits and need for the Apple tablet, a fantastic imaginary device addressing arguably a need and market that does not exist currently, except perhaps in our imagination.
Mind you, I am not saying this is wrong. I am am just trying to scratch under the surface at the psychology of the meme. Perhaps part of the reason there has been so much debate is that the economy has slowed the pace of industry innovation and so what's in front of us can't meet the expectations of a select, yet influential few - the early adopters.
So, we keep talking about the tablet in full view. The press therefore rightly keeps writing – the conjecture is a story too. Plus the occasional new rumors and opinion keep the the cycle going.All of this is a fascinating study in the psychology of our times and how conversation drives the news and the hype cycle, potentially setting up everyone to fail given the outlandish expectations.
Perhaps only divine intervention will give us what we want, even if we may not need it.
Comments 14 Comments
I believe the Twitter and Facebook and Google story is played out, so yes, you're right there, one of the major reasons FriendFeed's decline has been frustrating. But this release should be, like the iPhone and the iTunes Store before it, another straight Steve Jobs experience. People miss Steve more than they miss shiny objects... and Steve's been hiding a long time.
A walk down memory lane:
"May we speculate that the big item due to set the Macintosh welkin ringing ... next month just might be an Apple tablet computer. Think of a name: iSlate, iNote, iPad (maybe too close to iPod)."
-- Garry Barker, Livewire, December 4, 2002
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2002/12/04/1038950089735.html
Mobile Mac slate device to launch?
"All we know about this piece of plastic is that:
1) it is vouched for by a "previously good source" who has contacts in the factory where it's being made
2) it is almost an inch thick, at 24.6mm; and its other dimensions are 188mm by 132mm
3) the factory where it is being assembled is supposedly under contract to Apple."
-- MacWhispers, March 29, 2003
http://www.newswireless.net/index.cfm/article/1703
"Speculation over what Jobs might reveal this year are all over the map ... (including) an Intel-powered Mac Tablet running Mac OS X or a "Mac OS X Lite.""
-- MacDailyNews, May 27, 2005
http://www.macdailynews.com/index.php/weblog/comments/5878/
"Apple researchers have built a full working prototype of a Mac tablet PC and three Companies in Taiwan are now costing a product for a potential launch in mid 2007..."
-- Smarthouse, via MacDailyNews, November 26, 2006
http://www.macdailynews.com/index.php/weblog/comments/11743/
"Once again we're back on the Mac Tablet rumor merry-go-round, but this time there may be some substance behind the rumors. For the past several days the web has been abuzz with rumors of a new Mac Tablet ready to hit production and debut in early 2007."
-- Tablet PC Preview.com, November 27, 2006
http://www.tabletpcreview.com/default.asp?newsID=643
Welcome to 2010. What's new? :)
In the words of the great philosopher Sheryl Crow, "It's not having what you want, it's wanting what you've got."
These devices are meant for connectivity, but we're so busy connecting that we don't spend any time conversing and learning from one another. Social networking has to get beyond "here's what I'm doing right now" and "here's how many followers I have" if we're going to move forward. I don't really care how many people "like" or "retweet" my posts, I want to know what people think.
Instead, we're speculating, rumor mongering and fuel the already frothy hype around Apple - which is the effect you're seeing. If anything, it's a lack of anything else exciting to talk about. Windows 7? Yawn.
"And so we're left to debate the merits and need for the Apple tablet, a fantastic imaginary device addressing arguably a need and market that does not exist currently, except perhaps in our imagination."
I think @louisgray has it after a fashion. We're like a group of children running around looking for grandpa because we know he's going to pull a nickel from behind our ears... Except we're adults... and somehow Mr Jobs finds a way to actually do it.
Anyways, great post, and I'm of to watch for the Great Pumpkin.