7 Sep 2010

A Privacy 9-11 Could Derail Social

I have a macabre habit. No matter how hard I try, I can't kick it.

Each year, come the first week of September, I deliberately seek out the most horrific footage from September 11th that I can find. I watch videos of the second plane hitting the World Trade Center at full speed and of desperate workers leaping to their death.

As a lifelong New Yorker, this is my way of coping with the tragedy. I purposefully make myself feel uneasy to remind myself that if we get too comfortable, we will forget and it will happen again.

Making a connection between a global tragedy like 9/11 and digital privacy may seem like a leap, but I am going to try. Hopefully you'll bear with me. My apologies in advance.

Flashback to early 2001 and you might recall that America was blissfully ignorant about our national security. Terrorism was something that happened elsewhere, never on our shores. It didn't enter our mind such an event could happen here until a few dozen suicidal extremists found a weak link in our system, commandeered our airspace with simple box cutters and murdered thousands of innocent people. They forced us to think the unthinkable.

Today I have an similar uneasy feeling about social networking and, to some degree, cloud computing. I believe that a Privacy 9-11 looms. I don't have evidence to support it. All I have is a bad vibe that too many people are apathetic about securing their privacy and this creates lots of weak links waiting to be exploited with digital box cutters.

The risk of a Privacy 9-11 is not rooted in technology. Rather, it's about sociology.

Google, Facebook, Twitter, Amazon and others have hardened technological defenses that protect our privacy. My concern is user apathy. Too many people today have a free-spirited attitude about their privacy. To be sure, there are lots of people who are paranoid. But we are outnumbered.

Anyone in security will tell you that a good defense is only as strong as the weakest link in the chain. Net, no matter how hardened our technological defenses are, it's my bet that somewhere someone will suffer a major privacy leak that impacts millions, sends shock waves through our system and makes us feel less secure than we did before. Such an event could slow interest in social networking and derail its marketing potential.

Perhaps this event is years away. Maybe it is completely far fetched. What's certain, however, is that as our once-analog social lives become increasingly digitized, now is the time for leaders to table the issue. Marketers, consumers, government and (not least of all) the platforms - all of whom have much at stake here - must work together to ensure that we are doing everything possible to protect and defend the digital privacy of our netizens.

Right now, we're not.

The risk of a Privacy 9/11 - a cataclysmic event that exposes the private information of millions of people - can be prevented if we act. Privacy, like terrorism, is something many don't think about until they have to. Some are doing an exemplary job of showing people just how their data is being used. Others - marketers included - need to go to the same lengths.

Consider Amazon.com, for example. The e-commerce giant doesn't rely on Facebook's arcane permissions screen to explain what data they share with your friends if you opt into their new social sharing features. Forrester analyst Auggie Ray points out that Amazon tells consumers in detail what will/wont be shared and the benefits in opting in. 

Much the same, Google last week simplified its privacy policy across all of its sites in an effort to make them more user-friendly. It also maintains a Dashboard that every user can look at to see just how much or little of their data is on Google's servers.

Finally, perhaps stung by prior criticism, Facebook too recently simplified its privacy controls. More importantly they gave users the ability to monitor for suspicious logins and even log out of Facebook remotely.

Amazon, Google and Facebook should be lauded for educating consumers. They see consumer privacy and security as a mutual responsibility - which it is. But this is only the beginning.

The next step is for marketers, government, media and platforms to stand together in shaping standards in how we educate the public about the risks of our increasingly socially connected world - and in setting behavioral norms. For example, a study released by Georgia Tech found that passwords today  should be a minimum of 12 characters . Too few sites mandate such lengths. A coalition could change this.

The time to prepare for a Privacy 9/11 is now - even if it means that we might make some people uneasy. It's for everyone's own good and it all starts with education.

12 Aug 2010

Media Companies Must Divide To Conquer

The following essay is also my Forbes.com column for August.

Media Companies Must Divide To Conquer

The media is something that for most, if not all, of our adult lives, we have taken for granted. Media giants form the terra firma of the marketing industry, both its paid and earned disciplines. They provide the lifeblood of services and bring us the audiences we need to do our jobs.

However, underneath it all, the harsh reality is that there's a new digital dynamic present today. This will mean that many media companies divide themselves into dozens of smaller independent operating companies if they wish to survive. Many won't.

First, there is some good news.

Over the last few years, to their credit, traditional media outlets have done an outstanding job adapting to new technologies, including social networks, mobile and tablets--and helping marketers do the same. Rather than see Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, the iPad, et al, as threats, most media companies have embraced them as potentially lucrative revenue opportunities. And they've innovated too.

Nevertheless, the media business, as anyone who is in it will tell you, is still reeling in pain. To paraphrase NBC head Jeff Zucker, analog dollars are not being replaced quickly enough by digital pennies.

There are at least three currents contributing to the pain.

First, there's the sheer ballooning of information. According to TechCrunch,Google CEO Eric Schmidt recently said that every two days we create as much information as we did from the dawn of civilization until 2003. "The real issue is user-generated content," Schmidt said at the Technomy conference.

Despite Google's best efforts to organize it all, this is one of three new realities that will force us to make choices about what we consume and from whom.

This leads to the second current: time. Despite our Herculean efforts, time and attention remain finite quantities. And, increasingly, we are burrowing deeper into social sites. According to Nielsen, time spent on social networking climbed 43% since 2009. It now accounts for 27% of the time Americans spend online, and is the most popular online activity.

What this means for media companies is that, like it or not, social networks and social information networks are becoming their largest distributors of content, perhaps only second to Google.

Finally, and not least of all, we have mobile. According to Morgan Stanley, in just a few years digital content consumption from mobile devices will surpass the same from PCs. No matter how sophisticated these devices get, the rise of mobile will have a dramatic impact on how our global society interacts with digital information. The devices lend themselves more to pervasive media snacking over meals.

The upshot of all of this is that the era of one-size-fits-all media is coming to an end. Faced with infinite choices (and competition from people we know), finite time and attention and form factors that favor short over long, consumers are going to--as a coping mechanism--increasingly drill to find sources that align with their worldview and interests, and let the rest float by.

Media analyst Ken Doctor, in his outstanding book Newsonomics, makes a strong case that there will be only a dozen major global news players. This is down dramatically from the hundreds we have today. Given the above trends, the rest many not make it. But I am optimistic that they can if they see the light now.

To survive many media companies will need to divide themselves into dozens of smaller, independent units if they wish to survive. Although few will say so publicly, some are already moving in a direction of verticalization and specialization.

Consider, for example, ESPN. The juggernaut of sports news has been aggressively rolling out a network of local-interest sites, like ESPNNewYork.com and ESPNLosAgeles.com, in order to cater to rich sports towns. Now it's in the process of adding similar mobile apps to the mix.

This approach is smart. It slices and dices content into micro chunks that cater to diverse interests, rather than trying to be one size fits all. Granted, ESPN itself remains a whole, but others may not be as lucky.

Just as Ma Bell divided itself up into dozens of baby bells back in the 1980s - and arguably to the benefit of consumers and the telecommunications industry - many media companies will need to do the same to cope with the new digital dynamic.

Let's hope that they are just as open to structural change and verticalization as they have been to embracing new formats.

20 Jul 2010

Presentation: Six Digital Trends to Watch

One of the best aspects of my job is that I get to learn from incredibly smart people. Working for Edelman is like playing for the Yankees. Richard Edelman has an approach to talent that in some ways resembles the late George Steinbrenner (not the Howie Spira side of George, but the good side). The firm consistently attracts all-stars to the team and puts them in a great position to succeed. The result is that every day I get to hit the field with pros like Mike Slaby or Richard Sambrook or Carol Cone - it's all very inspiring. 

One of these people is David Armano - who I work very closely with - and we recently tag-teamed on this presentation on six trends to watch. For more head over to David's blog. As always, we're eager to hear your thoughts.
15 Jun 2010

Mind Map: Three Digital Trends for the New Decade

Three Digital Trends for the New Decade

Have you tried mind mapping? I am a mind mapping fanatic. I find that it really helps me think through challenges and develop innovative solutions. Chris Brogan too is a fan. He uses it to plot out his projects and ensure he's on target. 

I have been giving a talk recently on the three key trends that marketers will need to adapt to in the new decade: 1) the move from a a web of pages to a web of streams, 2) the challenge in becoming more digitally visible in an age of too much noise and 3) the need to become more data driven in everything we do - and with a do-it-yourself attitude (DIY).

Recently I gave a talk on this topic at a conference in Amsterdam and the folks at World of Minds created a mind map of it, which you can find here (PDF) or on Scribd.

What do you think of these? I love when others mind map my speeches and also large events because you get to see how others interpret your thoughts. I have long wanted to create more mind maps here. If I did, what kind of maps would be valuable? Let me know in the comments on Twitter.

14 Apr 2010

Three Trends Slates Will Accelerate

A little over a week ago I moved my MacBook Air off my desk at home and jumped in using a slate to cover 90% of my work/personal needs (basically I just use my laptop to manage the slate). In the office, I only used my HP desktop for complex tasks that required it - like PowerPoint.

My verdict: if you are a knowledge worker and your computing needs center mostly around the web and text, as mine do, slates are ready for prime time. I am going to continue using my iPad as my primary device. And I hope to try HP's slate when it comes out (HP is an Edelman client).

I believe the slate format is the future - perhaps not mainstream today, but they will be soon. However, as the slates take off they're going to have an impact on marketing and media as well. Here are the three trends that I believe the format will accelerate...

1) Media Reforestation

Media is in a rapid state of evolution as consumption moves from atoms (e.g. print) to bits. I believe all tangible forms of media - everything you can see, touch, taste and smell - will be in sharp decline or extinct by 2012 in the US, and eventually globally.

Mobile devices, especially slates, are going to accelerate this trend. The experience of reading the Wall Street Journal on the iPad is better than the web site or the print edition. If News Corp. prices it reasonably, I will subscribe. I believe many millions will too.

Everyday a newsprint reader dies and is not replaced. However, newspaper readers will be around forever and slates give the medium a real shot in the arm. However, that's not to say there won't be pain - the economics are different.

2) The Attention Crash

On my iPad right now I have four feature-length movies, 2500 songs, two email accounts, Facebook, Twitter, six ebooks, dozens of articles I want to read (thank you Instapaper!), many news apps, games and more.

Now I am an extreme information junkie. Not everyone is. But these devices put infinite choices at our disposal. Yet the fact remains, we only have one brain.

We're deep into a crisis of attention. Slates will accelerate attention apnea. We will start and stop tasks, jumping from one to the other. The end result, more media snacking, fewer meals, And when we do consume meals, it maybe quality content like movies, news apps and TV shows that reign. Time will tell.

3) Work-Life Blending

The great thing about slates is the value they offer for the cost - $500 - as well as in their portability. This week I attended several meetings inside and outside the firm and I spotted iPads at every single one. Yesterday I attended a brainstorm at a major NGO that included people from around the globe. At one table of six there I saw four iPads. Most of these devices I suspect were purchased by individuals not their employers.

Slates, like instant messaging, Twitter, Facebook and the like, are going to sneak into corporations via the back door, though I suspect some employers will buy them for knowledge workers.

The trend here to note is that these devices blend our work/personal lives. Slates didn't cause blending but as more of us bring them to work, it accelerates. IT managers will need to provide sound guidance to ensure these devices and smart phones protect corporate information, while not stifling productivity. A byproduct: this is will likely encourage companies to become more social since slates and smart phones bring social networking deep inside the firewall.

That's what I see in my crystal ball. Slates largely accelerate trends that smart phones started. Now I may be wrong of course. Time will tell. But I see a lot of promise for these devices and potentially many winners, not just Apple.

Steve Rubel's Posterous

Steve Rubel (bio) is SVP, Director of Insights for Edelman Digital, a division of Edelman - the world's largest independent PR firm.

He is charged with helping clients identify emerging technologies and trends that can be applied in marketing communications programs. Rubel also explores these topics on his site and in monthly columns for Forbes.com and Advertising Age. He can be found on Twitter and Facebook as well.

Steve can be reached via email at steverubel@gmail.com.

Note: Everything posted on this site is Steve's personal opinion. It does not represent the views of Edelman or its clients.